Mon, Feb 11, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
San Jose Sharks 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 16 | 110 | 227 |
| CBJ | 110 | 213 | 313 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:43CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Matt Calvert, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 13:05CBJJames WisniewskiPPAssists: Derick Brassard, R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 14:16CBJCody GoloubefGWGAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 14:29SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Ryane Clowe, Douglas Murray · Snap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 0:21CBJNikita NikitinAssists: Matt Calvert, Brandon Dubinsky · Snap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 5:37CBJVinny ProspalPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.24 xG1–5
- P3 5:45CBJMark LetestuAssists: Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–6
- P3 18:08SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.10 xG2–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:33CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:33SJSMatt Pelech: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:16CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:46CBJTim Erixon: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:30SJSAdam Burish: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:30CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:01SJSBrent Burns: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:54SJSBrad Stuart: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:19SJSAdam Burish: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:34SJSScott Gomez: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:41CBJMatt Calvert: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Sheppard – Wingels11:15
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Marleau – Havlat – Couture3:34
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Couture4:52
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Thornton – Gomez – Pavelski3:16
xG 0.01–0.09 (8%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic9:23
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Boyle – Vlasic10:21
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Stuart – Murray8:23
xG 0.22–0.22 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Foligno – Calvert10:46
xG 0.64–0.06 (91%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Prospal – Anisimov – Letestu9:40
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Gillies8:22
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Umberger – Dorsett – Brassard8:16
xG 0.05–0.36 (12%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Nikitin13:47
xG 0.66–0.02 (97%)attempts 11–2goals 3–0
- Goloubef – Erixon14:52
xG 0.40–0.06 (86%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Johnson15:58
xG 0.42–0.81 (34%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).