Tue, Feb 12, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
New York Rangers 4, Boston Bruins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 19 | 110 | 02 | 2 | 429 |
| BOS | 011 | 012 | 313 | 04 | 1 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:37NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Rick Nash, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 8:17NYRDerek StepanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 2:07NYRAnton StralmanUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 8:44BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Milan Lucic, Dennis Seidenberg · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 18:29BOSNathan HortonAssists: Milan Lucic, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–2
- P3 19:17BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Dennis Seidenberg · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BOS Tyler Seguin stopped
- 2. NYR Marian Gaborik stopped
- 3. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
- 4. NYR Rick Nash scored
- 5. BOS Brad Marchand scored
- 6. NYR Brad Richards stopped
- 7. BOS David Krejci stopped
- 8. NYR Ryan Callahan scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:03NYRDarroll Powe: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 3:45BOSTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:47BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:10NYRJ.T. Miller: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:31NYRMarc Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 19:02BOSMilan Lucic: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:45BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:43NYRRick Nash: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Kreider – Miller7:06
xG 0.46–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Pyatt – Gaborik7:24
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Hagelin – Stepan10:08
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Nash2:32
xG 0.06–0.07 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Del Zotto6:59
xG 0.80–0.13 (86%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh18:45
xG 0.85–0.29 (75%)attempts 10–18goals 2–0
- Staal – Stralman10:52
xG 0.49–0.17 (75%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Campbell – Paille2:00
xG 0.18–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kelly – Bourque – Peverley5:38
xG 0.05–0.01 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic12:23
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille4:40
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Boychuk2:44
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton2:00
xG 0.13–0.05 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Chara – Seidenberg2:57
xG 0.07–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).