Tue, Feb 12, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 6, Florida Panthers 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 16 | 212 | 29 | 12 | 629 |
| FLA | 214 | 29 | 19 | 00 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26WSHMike RibeiroPPAssists: Tomas Kundratek · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:18FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Filip Kuba · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 13:09FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Marcel Goc, Dmitry Kulikov · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 5:33WSHKarl AlznerAssists: Eric Fehr, Joel Ward · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 8:47FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Peter Mueller, Erik Gudbranson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 10:21WSHMatt HendricksAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Mike Ribeiro · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 18:26FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Peter Mueller, Drew Shore · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 6:25FLADrew ShoreAssists: Jack Skille · Tip-in, 0.23 xG3–5
- P3 14:53WSHEric FehrAssists: Mike Green, Joel Ward · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–5
- P3 17:11WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG5–5
- OT 0:32WSHTroy BrouwerGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.26 xG6–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:31WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:31FLAKris Versteeg: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:31FLAKris Versteeg: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:42WSHJeff Schultz: Holding2 min
- P1 10:37WSHBraden Holtby: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:02WSHJohn Erskine: Holding2 min
- P2 11:41FLADrew Shore: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:21WSHMatt Hendricks: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:07FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:15WSHMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWolski – Brouwer – Backstrom13:20
xG 0.94–0.21 (82%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Hendricks – Ovechkin11:00
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Ward – Fehr – Perreault8:09
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Hendricks – Crabb – Beagle2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner16:55
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Erskine – Green3:16
xG 0.09–0.27 (26%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Schultz – Kundratek9:42
xG 0.12–0.37 (25%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Parros – Skille – Matthias2:53
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Kopecky – Goc5:47
xG 0.06–0.07 (47%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Mueller – Shore – Huberdeau11:13
xG 0.45–0.58 (43%)attempts 12–16goals 2–1
- Kopecky – Weiss – Fleischmann3:37
xG 0.02–0.16 (10%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Gudbranson10:37
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 2–2
- Kuba – Campbell13:25
xG 0.49–0.55 (47%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Weaver – Kulikov16:58
xG 0.66–0.79 (46%)attempts 12–19goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).