Wed, Feb 13, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 011 | 212 | 06 | 229 |
| PIT | 115 | 15 | 210 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:23PITPascal DupuisAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 10:31OTTStephane Da CostaAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 10:55OTTJim O'BrienAssists: Erik Condra · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 13:47PITJames NealPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Paul Martin · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 1:52PITJames NealGWGAssists: Matt Cooke, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 11:42PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Paul Martin, James Neal · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:19PITPaul Martin: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:17OTTJim O'Brien: Holding2 min
- P2 7:51PITPaul Martin: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:31PITPascal Dupuis: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:16OTTChris Phillips: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:48PITPaul Martin: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:38OTTChris Phillips: Holding2 min
- P3 17:54OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:54OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:54PITMatt Cooke: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:54OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Daugavins – Smith7:22
xG 0.59–0.24 (71%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Alfredsson – Da Costa – Zibanejad5:05
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Condra – Turris – Silfverberg9:52
xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Wiercioch2:03
xG 0.23–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Phillips – Benoit7:03
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Benoit – Methot2:39
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Malkin – Neal5:57
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Sutter – Boychuk4:16
xG 0.16–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Neal – Boychuk3:20
xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter2:30
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Despres9:04
xG 0.89–0.63 (59%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- Orpik – Niskanen3:13
xG 0.06–0.14 (31%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Orpik – Martin13:03
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).