Wed, Feb 13, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 4, Calgary Flames 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 213 | 114 | 434 |
| CGY | 410 | 27 | 16 | 723 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:11CGYJay BouwmeesterAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 6:44CGYJiri HudlerPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P1 9:55CGYMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Roman Cervenka · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P1 12:42DALEric NystromAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Ryan Garbutt · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P1 17:18CGYRoman CervenkaAssists: Alex Tanguay, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 0:45DALBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–4
- P2 3:23CGYMichael CammalleriGWGAssists: Lee Stempniak, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–5
- P2 3:47DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–5
- P2 12:01CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Jarome Iginla, Blair Jones · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–6
- P3 1:05DALCody EakinPPAssists: Michael Ryder, Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.16 xG4–6
- P3 18:34CGYMichael CammalleriENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:47DALTrevor Daley: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:16DALAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:41CGYAlex Tanguay: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:13DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:13CGYJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:22CGYJiri Hudler: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:12CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:13CGYDennis Wideman: Delaying game smothering puck2 min · PPG
- P3 11:14DALTrevor Daley: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:14CGYJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Nystrom – Garbutt10:08
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Roussel – Smith – Eakin5:20
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ryder – Roy – Eriksson11:13
xG 0.34–0.46 (43%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Jagr – Morrow – Benn14:18
xG 0.54–1.53 (26%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Oleksiak12:39
xG 0.44–0.62 (41%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Robidas – Dillon16:34
xG 0.52–0.74 (41%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Daley – Rome13:02
xG 0.26–1.08 (19%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stajan – Stempniak11:42
xG 1.15–0.26 (81%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Glencross – Comeau – Jones3:50
xG 0.27–0.05 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Glencross – Jones6:05
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Tanguay – Hudler – Cervenka12:33
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Giordano16:23
xG 1.40–0.64 (69%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Wideman – Brodie17:32
xG 0.78–0.52 (60%)attempts 17–19goals 2–0
- Sarich – Butler12:25
xG 0.25–0.37 (41%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).