Fri, Feb 15, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 112 | 09 | 27 | 328 |
| WPG | 06 | 014 | 16 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:19PITCraig AdamsAssists: Joe Vitale, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–0
- P3 15:11PITJames NealPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 18:25WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little, Evander Kane · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 19:32PITCraig AdamsENAssists: Chris Kunitz, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:02WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:02PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:59PITBrooks Orpik: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:42WPGJames Wright: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:42PITCraig Adams: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:59WPGChris Thorburn: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:58PITPascal Dupuis: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:18WPGZach Redmond: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:42WPGMark Stuart: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Glass – Vitale6:29
xG 1.12–0.31 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Cooke – Malkin – Neal7:32
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby12:12
xG 0.64–0.54 (54%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Malkin – Neal – Bennett3:34
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Niskanen3:14
xG 0.75–0.02 (98%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Letang14:50
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Orpik – Letang3:27
xG 0.06–0.38 (14%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little11:44
xG 0.99–0.55 (64%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Wright2:56
xG 0.21–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wellwood – Tangradi7:52
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Antropov – Kane – Burmistrov10:04
xG 0.41–0.62 (39%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Redmond3:46
xG 0.54–0.02 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Redmond3:24
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Bogosian3:33
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).