Sun, Feb 17, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Los Angeles Kings 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 010 | 29 | 227 |
| CHI | 211 | 121 | 05 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:29CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Duncan Keith, Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 10:32CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 0:56CHIPatrick SharpGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–3
- P3 0:56LAKMike RichardsPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 12:50LAKMike RichardsPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Justin Williams · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:12LAKDwight King: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 14:49CHIBrandon Bollig: Interference2 min
- P1 17:06LAKDavis Drewiske: Holding2 min
- P2 1:57LAKDavis Drewiske: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:43LAKKyle Clifford: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 0:43CHIPatrick Sharp: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:53CHIPatrick Sharp: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:53LAKJarret Stoll: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:58CHIJonathan Toews: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:52LAKJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
- P3 18:56CHIJohnny Oduya: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Richards – Clifford2:27
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Stoll – Penner – Lewis2:17
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Williams – Carter – Clifford2:00
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Penner7:32
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Drewiske8:37
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty3:26
xG 0.04–0.13 (24%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Voynov13:58
xG 0.21–0.55 (27%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Kruger – Bollig5:47
xG 0.56–0.09 (87%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Hossa – Toews – Saad10:33
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Bickell – Stalberg – Shaw8:18
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Sharp – Bolland – Kane9:35
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson14:15
xG 1.20–0.25 (83%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Brookbank – Leddy10:16
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook13:30
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).