Sun, Feb 17, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 4, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 012 | 36 | 426 |
| DAL | 04 | 322 | 04 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:11CGYMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 1:51DALAntoine RousselAssists: Cody Eakin, Michael Ryder · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 2:47DALReilly SmithAssists: Derek Roy, Loui Eriksson · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 15:23DALRyan GarbuttAssists: Stephane Robidas · Snap, 0.29 xG1–3
- P3 1:39CGYRoman HorakAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Roman Cervenka · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 2:24CGYMatt StajanAssists: Lee Stempniak, Curtis Glencross · Snap, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 10:30CGYSteve BeginGWGAssists: Chris Butler, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:17DALRyan Garbutt: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:17CGYSteve Begin: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:05DALBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
- P1 7:46DALStephane Robidas: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:57CGYChris Butler: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:43DALJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:55CGYJay Bouwmeester: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:06DALCody Eakin: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:58DALLoui Eriksson: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:53CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Hudler – Cervenka3:28
xG 0.37–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Stajan – Stempniak – Glencross5:27
xG 0.38–0.08 (82%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Stajan – Stempniak3:06
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Hudler – Horak – Cervenka5:12
xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Giordano14:10
xG 0.97–0.41 (71%)attempts 17–10goals 2–1
- Bouwmeester – Butler4:39
xG 0.27–0.10 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie14:03
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Morrow – Benn8:23
xG 0.42–0.07 (86%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Garbutt5:31
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Roy – Eriksson – Smith8:43
xG 0.60–0.54 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Ryder – Roussel – Eakin6:27
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Dillon11:36
xG 0.82–0.20 (81%)attempts 15–4goals 2–0
- Robidas – Goligoski2:13
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Daley – Rome7:00
xG 0.05–0.09 (37%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).