Sun, Feb 17, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 1, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 09 | 011 | 128 |
| NYR | 020 | 114 | 16 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:19WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Eric Fehr · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 7:39NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Rick Nash · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 4:25NYRDerek StepanPPGWGAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Brad Richards · Snap, 0.26 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:50WSHMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:37WSHJason Chimera: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:26NYRAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:20WSHTroy Brouwer: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:25NYRJ.T. Miller: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:14NYRMichael Del Zotto: Interference2 min
- P3 4:18WSHKarl Alzner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:17WSHJeff Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:04NYRRick Nash: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Crabb – Beagle6:14
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Wolski – Brouwer – Backstrom8:05
xG 0.40–0.64 (39%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Ward – Fehr – Perreault8:12
xG 0.36–0.62 (37%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ribeiro – Ovechkin9:35
xG 0.10–0.71 (12%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Kundratek16:27
xG 1.14–0.69 (63%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Erskine – Carlson13:29
xG 0.87–0.85 (51%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Poti – Schultz7:37
xG 0.10–0.94 (9%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Hagelin – Stepan8:59
xG 1.01–0.44 (70%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Callahan7:59
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Nash3:11
xG 0.31–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Miller8:00
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Del Zotto4:05
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Staal – Girardi4:40
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh9:12
xG 0.37–0.10 (78%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).