Thu, Feb 21, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
New York Rangers 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 011 | 09 | 211 | 03 | 1 | 234 |
| OTT | 111 | 08 | 115 | 03 | 2 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:48OTTJakob SilfverbergSHAssists: Daniel Alfredsson · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P3 10:44NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Marc Staal, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 11:35NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: J.T. Miller, Jeff Halpern · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 13:30OTTMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Colin Greening, Patrick Wiercioch · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. OTT Daniel Alfredsson stopped
- 2. NYR Marian Gaborik stopped
- 3. OTT Jakob Silfverberg scored
- 4. NYR Ryan Callahan scored
- 5. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 6. NYR Derek Stepan stopped
- 7. OTT Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 8. NYR Brad Richards stopped
- 9. OTT Zack Smith stopped
- 10. NYR Carl Hagelin stopped
- 11. OTT Patrick Wiercioch stopped
- 12. NYR J.T. Miller stopped
- 13. OTT Kaspars Daugavins scored
- 14. NYR Chris Kreider stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:32OTTEric Gryba: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:39OTTMarc Methot: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:44NYRDerek Stepan: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:54OTTChris Neil: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:49OTTSergei Gonchar: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:19NYRBrian Boyle: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Pyatt – Callahan5:19
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Miller4:25
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Callahan – Kreider7:40
xG 0.03–0.22 (13%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Hagelin – Stepan14:43
xG 0.55–1.13 (33%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stralman – McDonagh16:33
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Staal – Girardi17:55
xG 0.69–0.96 (42%)attempts 14–27goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gilroy6:59
xG 0.24–0.64 (28%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGreening – Condra – Zibanejad9:19
xG 0.69–0.19 (78%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Dziurzynski11:48
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Daugavins – Grant – Da Costa4:32
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Turris – Silfverberg14:21
xG 0.36–0.77 (32%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Benoit14:13
xG 1.22–0.15 (89%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips2:07
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Methot – Gryba16:44
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).