Thu, Feb 21, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Boston Bruins 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 28 | 112 | 16 | 426 |
| TBL | 15 | 112 | 09 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:11BOSNathan HortonAssists: Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 3:50BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 8:13TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Teddy Purcell, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 9:00TBLCory ConacherAssists: Teddy Purcell, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 13:58BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 2:33BOSNathan HortonAssists: Zdeno Chara, Dougie Hamilton · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:07BOSDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:35BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:15BOSAdam McQuaid: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00TBLVincent Lecavalier: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic14:28
xG 0.82–0.45 (65%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
- Kelly – Bourque – Peverley11:05
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin11:48
xG 0.24–0.29 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:33
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Hamilton6:00
xG 0.43–0.22 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 2–2
- Seidenberg – McQuaid3:23
xG 0.12–0.04 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Chara – Boychuk11:47
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Pyatt – Killorn8:11
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Pouliot12:44
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Hall – Crombeen – Panik4:23
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Panik2:16
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Bergeron – Lee10:05
xG 0.23–0.25 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Salo – Hedman15:54
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Brewer – Bergeron2:14
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).