Thu, Feb 21, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vancouver Canucks 4, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 18 | 27 | 422 |
| DAL | 18 | 110 | 17 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35DALJamie BennAssists: Aaron Rome, Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 8:29VANAlexandre BurrowsPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:39DALMichael RyderAssists: Antoine Roussel, Jordie Benn · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 7:05VANKevin BieksaAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Jordan Schroeder · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 2:32VANJason GarrisonAssists: Ryan Kesler, Zack Kassian · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 4:18VANHenrik SedinGWGAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 6:07DALBrenden MorrowUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:49DALReilly Smith: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:53VANKevin Bieksa: Kneeing2 min
- P1 17:42VANMason Raymond: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:00DALAaron Rome: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:55VANAlexandre Burrows: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:53VANZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:53DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:55DALCody Eakin: Holding2 min
- P2 19:02VANAlexandre Burrows: Interference2 min
- P3 9:46DALBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:51VANKevin Bieksa: Interference2 min
- P3 17:59DALDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBooth – Raymond – Schroeder9:47
xG 0.59–0.11 (84%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows8:54
xG 0.25–0.14 (63%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Kassian – Volpatti2:15
xG 0.05–0.02 (77%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Weise – Volpatti3:06
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev12:53
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Ballard – Garrison11:13
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Bieksa13:04
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Morrow – Benn10:41
xG 1.08–0.18 (86%)attempts 16–4goals 2–1
- Roy – Eriksson – Smith10:23
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Ryder – Benn – Eakin2:29
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Garbutt6:33
xG 0.02–0.05 (24%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Dillon12:42
xG 0.93–0.10 (90%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Rome – Goligoski13:01
xG 0.54–0.47 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 2–2
- Larsen – Benn10:54
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).