Sat, Feb 23, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
New Jersey Devils 1, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 05 | 110 | 07 | 122 |
| WSH | 011 | 14 | 411 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:20WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 19:22NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Andrei Loktionov, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 1:23WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Matt Hendricks, Jeff Schultz · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 3:56WSHEric FehrSHUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 15:13WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.22 xG1–4
- P3 17:09WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tomas Kundratek · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:58WSHJoey Crabb: Interference2 min
- P2 11:40WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:31WSHTom Poti: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 13:57NJDAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
- P3 2:14WSHJohn Erskine: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:47NJDStefan Matteau: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:50NJDAdam Larsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Clarkson – Henrique8:33
xG 0.82–0.19 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Ponikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Zajac5:58
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Barch – Gionta – Butler2:56
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Loktionov3:35
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Fayne9:08
xG 0.85–0.34 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Salvador – Zidlicky16:51
xG 0.72–0.47 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Greene – Larsson16:54
xG 0.40–0.54 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Wolski – Perreault10:14
xG 0.53–0.07 (88%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ribeiro – Ovechkin10:06
xG 0.45–0.48 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Crabb – Beagle7:05
xG 0.11–0.36 (24%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Fehr – Brouwer – Backstrom11:01
xG 0.17–0.77 (18%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Kundratek16:21
xG 0.80–0.39 (67%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Poti – Schultz13:42
xG 0.29–0.70 (29%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Erskine – Carlson15:58
xG 0.28–0.93 (23%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).