Sat, Feb 23, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 012 | 13 | 05 | 120 |
| STL | 17 | 013 | 13 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:55STLChris StewartAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alexander Steen · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 18:57CBJMatt CalvertSHAssists: James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 9:51STLDavid PerronGWGAssists: David Backes, Kris Russell · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:13STLKevin Shattenkirk: Interference2 min
- P2 10:12STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:12CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:34STLRoman Polak: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:34STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:34CBJR.J. Umberger: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:33CBJSean Collins: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:40STLMatt D'Agostini: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:28CBJNikita Nikitin: Interference2 min
- P3 18:17STLBarret Jackman: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Brassard – Atkinson10:35
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Prospal – Dorsett – Letestu10:19
xG 0.13–0.22 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Gillies7:27
xG 0.07–0.31 (19%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Calvert – Collins7:12
xG 0.02–0.58 (4%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Tyutin4:18
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Nikitin12:19
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Nikitin3:01
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Steen – Stewart10:07
xG 0.59–0.11 (84%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Backes – Oshie – Perron10:04
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Nichol – Reaves – Schwartz6:58
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sobotka – D'Agostini – Berglund10:05
xG 0.23–0.16 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Pietrangelo14:16
xG 0.74–0.11 (87%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk14:24
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Polak – Russell11:30
xG 0.11–0.33 (25%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).