Sat, Feb 23, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 1, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 012 | 08 | 112 | 132 |
| DAL | 014 | 17 | 27 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:02DALJaromir JagrPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P3 0:30DALMichael RyderPPGWGAssists: Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 2:19SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–2
- P3 17:49DALJamie BennAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (18)
- P1 10:54SJSPatrick Marleau: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:52SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Delaying game2 min
- P1 18:50SJSBrad Stuart: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:34DALJordie Benn: Holding2 min
- P2 3:37DALPhilip Larsen: Delaying game2 min
- P2 5:06SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:25DALJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:21DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:21SJSJoe Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:22SJSDan Boyle: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:09DALBrenden Morrow: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:09SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:02SJSDouglas Murray: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 1:13DALEric Nystrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:17DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:09DALBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
- P3 9:07SJSJoe Thornton: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:01DALPhilip Larsen: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Havlat – Couture9:45
xG 0.44–0.12 (78%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Marleau – Gomez – Pavelski8:08
xG 0.17–0.25 (40%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Burish – Kennedy – Desjardins4:58
xG 0.20–0.52 (28%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Handzus – Sheppard – Wingels5:58
xG 0.19–0.58 (25%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Murray2:27
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Vlasic10:32
xG 0.28–0.07 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Stuart – Murray3:38
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Eriksson – Smith5:56
xG 0.59–0.26 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Jagr – Morrow – Benn8:00
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Ryder – Roussel – Eakin4:56
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Garbutt5:48
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Benn4:40
xG 0.67–0.01 (99%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Larsen – Benn5:03
xG 0.38–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Robidas – Dillon12:55
xG 0.47–0.46 (50%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).