Sat, Feb 23, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 1, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 113 | 07 | 011 | 131 |
| CGY | 17 | 011 | 29 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:40CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 8:56MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Kyle Brodziak · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 7:19CGYMatt StajanGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, Chris Butler · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
- P3 19:51CGYMatt StajanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:24CGYBlake Comeau: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 1:38MINCharlie Coyle: Interference2 min
- P2 14:20CGYAkim Aliu: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:20MINMike Rupp: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:53MINJason Zucker: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:56CGYDennis Wideman: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Setoguchi – Zucker6:42
xG 0.60–0.05 (92%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Rupp – Konopka – Mitchell5:06
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Brodziak – Coyle7:00
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Parise9:39
xG 0.17–0.26 (39%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Stoner12:17
xG 0.76–0.33 (70%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Prosser7:42
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin12:49
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stempniak – Glencross7:30
xG 0.30–0.07 (81%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Hudler – Comeau – Baertschi6:12
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Begin – Jackman – Aliu4:19
xG 0.16–0.34 (32%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan11:14
xG 0.17–0.69 (20%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Brodie12:15
xG 0.87–0.73 (54%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Giordano11:24
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Butler – Smith8:03
xG 0.03–0.52 (6%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).