Mon, Feb 25, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 4, Nashville Predators 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 413 | 05 | 00 | 424 |
| NSH | 18 | 210 | 112 | 11 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:43NSHCraig SmithAssists: Rich Clune, Sergei Kostitsyn · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 1:20DALMatt FraserAssists: Loui Eriksson, Jordie Benn · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 1:45DALReilly SmithAssists: Michael Ryder, Cody Eakin · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 3:05NSHRoman JosiAssists: David Legwand, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 7:29DALVernon FiddlerPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Michael Ryder · Slap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 9:21DALLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Michael Ryder, Stephane Robidas · Tip-in, 0.23 xG4–2
- P2 13:43NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Martin Erat, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.22 xG4–3
- P3 8:22NSHMike FisherAssists: Colin Wilson, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–4
- OT 0:28NSHRoman JosiGWGAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Shea Weber · Slap, 0.04 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 15:29DALLoui Eriksson: Interference2 min
- P2 5:41NSHMartin Erat: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:29NSHMike Fisher: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 11:45NSHBrandon Yip: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:45DALEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 11:45DALEric Nystrom: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:24DALVernon Fiddler: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:24NSHMike Fisher: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:24DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:14DALMatt Fraser: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:22NSHPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Smith – Eakin8:40
xG 0.51–0.05 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Jagr – Morrow – Benn12:14
xG 0.50–0.42 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Garbutt6:44
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Roy – Eriksson – Fraser7:41
xG 0.13–0.42 (24%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Benn12:31
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Robidas – Dillon14:23
xG 0.24–0.30 (45%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Oleksiak11:32
xG 0.70–0.76 (48%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Bourque6:59
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Clune – Kostitsyn – Smith8:23
xG 0.65–0.60 (52%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
- Fisher – Erat – Wilson10:37
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Yip – Halischuk – Spaling7:13
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Ellis9:13
xG 0.63–0.35 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Blum – Ellis2:15
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi16:51
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).