Tue, Feb 26, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 18 | 17 | 27 | 422 |
| VAN | 011 | 113 | 17 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:22PHXKyle ChipchuraAssists: Paul Bissonnette, Michael Stone · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 9:54PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: David Rundblad, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 11:25VANJason GarrisonAssists: Ryan Kesler, Chris Higgins · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 12:32PHXAntoine VermetteGWGAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Lauri Korpikoski · Snap, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 13:36VANHenrik SedinAssists: Daniel Sedin, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 19:37PHXKyle ChipchuraENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:20VANDan Hamhuis: Holding2 min
- P1 9:31PHXKeith Yandle: Holding2 min
- P2 3:16PHXKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:16VANDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:13PHXBoyd Gordon: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:32PHXMichael Stone: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:32VANDaniel Sedin: Diving2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBissonnette – Chipchura – Johnson3:18
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Moss – Gordon – Korpikoski12:37
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Vermette – Boedker11:45
xG 0.08–0.41 (16%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Doan – Torres – Lombardi10:26
xG 0.20–0.55 (26%)attempts 7–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Klesla – Yandle7:28
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Klesla – Rundblad4:20
xG 0.03–0.04 (46%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
- Yandle – Stone12:37
xG 0.22–0.34 (40%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows14:46
xG 0.70–0.05 (94%)attempts 18–2goals 1–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Hansen12:45
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Booth – Raymond – Schroeder10:22
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Lapierre – Weise – Kassian4:53
xG 0.02–0.18 (10%)attempts 2–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Garrison13:45
xG 0.51–0.03 (94%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev12:49
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev2:01
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).