Wed, Feb 27, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 117 | 312 | 540 |
| TOR | 14 | 18 | 011 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:44TORFrazer McLarenAssists: Mike Brown, Jay McClement · Snap, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 16:56MTLAlexei EmelinAssists: Colby Armstrong, Travis Moen · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 4:17MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Snap, 0.58 xG2–1
- P2 15:47TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Nazem Kadri, Cody Franson · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 9:08MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: Josh Gorges, David Desharnais · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 14:26MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 17:34MTLBrian GiontaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 19:22TORMike Brown: Checking from behind5 min · PPG
- P1 19:22TORMike Brown: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 19:47MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:54
xG 0.47–0.16 (75%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Ryder – Eller – Galchenyuk9:52
xG 0.11–0.18 (37%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Gionta – Plekanec – Prust12:31
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Moen – Armstrong – White8:03
xG 0.08–0.81 (9%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kaberle – Subban8:29
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Kaberle – Bouillon4:36
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban6:46
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Grabovski – Kulemin6:13
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Orr – MacArthur – Kadri12:42
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Grabovski – Komarov – Kulemin7:41
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak11:26
xG 0.20–0.40 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Fraser15:27
xG 0.93–0.08 (92%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Gunnarsson – Kostka17:38
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Holzer14:01
xG 0.31–0.51 (38%)attempts 16–19goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).