Thu, Feb 28, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 310 | 08 | 11 | 528 |
| NYI | 16 | 111 | 29 | 01 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Kyle Okposo, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 8:31TORNazem KadriAssists: Mark Fraser · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 6:22NYILubomir VisnovskyAssists: Casey Cizikas, Colin McDonald · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 8:55TORNazem KadriAssists: Mark Fraser, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 10:25TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: David Steckel, Colton Orr · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–2
- P2 14:12TORNazem KadriAssists: Michael Kostka, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 5:31NYIAndrew MacDonaldAssists: Kyle Okposo, Mark Streit · Slap, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 10:08NYIKyle OkposoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 1:11TORDion PhaneufGWGAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur · Slap, 0.16 xG5–4
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Komarov – Kadri13:52
xG 0.79–0.32 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Orr – Steckel – McLaren5:59
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- McClement – Grabovski – Kulemin15:42
xG 0.29–0.70 (29%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak17:07
xG 0.62–1.18 (34%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Fraser17:00
xG 1.38–0.80 (63%)attempts 17–12goals 3–4
- Phaneuf – Holzer12:35
xG 0.76–0.44 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Kostka11:23
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Moulson – Tavares17:07
xG 1.33–0.36 (79%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Grabner – Martin2:26
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey18:03
xG 0.59–0.71 (45%)attempts 13–18goals 2–0
- Boulton – Reasoner – Martin5:35
xG 0.03–0.47 (7%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Finley9:38
xG 0.37–0.29 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Visnovsky – Hickey15:31
xG 0.68–0.60 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic13:42
xG 1.04–1.13 (48%)attempts 16–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).