Thu, Feb 28, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 09 | 09 | 127 |
| CAR | 113 | 312 | 04 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:14PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 19:35CAREric StaalAssists: Alexander Semin, Jiri Tlusty · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 4:03CARJiri TlustyGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Tim Gleason · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–2
- P2 5:49CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Joe Corvo · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 19:49CARJiri TlustyAssists: Alexander Semin, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.20 xG1–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 0:45PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P1 1:16CARChad LaRose: Interference2 min
- P1 7:32CARJay Harrison: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:49PITTanner Glass: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 0:00CARJay Harrison: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00CARJay Harrison: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00PITCraig Adams: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:31PITDeryk Engelland: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:31CARJeff Skinner: Diving2 min
- P2 14:05CAREric Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 16:20PITBeau Bennett: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:37PITJoe Vitale: Interference2 min
- P3 6:50CARJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:15PITRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:20PITRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:20CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Kennedy – Jeffrey2:38
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter3:16
xG 0.21–0.27 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Neal7:49
xG 0.40–0.57 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Adams – Glass – Vitale4:15
xG 0.06–0.31 (17%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Bortuzzo3:32
xG 0.34–0.03 (92%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Orpik – Martin4:21
xG 0.32–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Orpik – Engelland2:16
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Tlusty9:38
xG 0.83–0.36 (70%)attempts 13–12goals 3–1
- LaRose – Staal – Skinner7:33
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Brent – Wallace – Bowman2:41
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Dwyer – Nash4:50
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Faulk11:19
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Corvo – Gleason9:41
xG 0.39–0.38 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- McBain – Sanguinetti9:59
xG 0.30–0.44 (41%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).