Thu, Feb 28, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 3, St. Louis Blues 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 17 | 08 | 28 | 323 |
| STL | 06 | 07 | 08 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:12CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Brandon Saad, Marian Hossa · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P3 2:11CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Bryan Bickell · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 6:56CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Nick Leddy, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:39STLRyan Reaves: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 5:39CHIBrandon Bollig: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:39CHIBrandon Bollig: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:20CHIAndrew Shaw: Interference2 min
- P2 9:24STLRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:25CHIMarcus Kruger: Holding2 min
- P3 3:50CHIPatrick Sharp: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Stalberg – Shaw10:39
xG 0.50–0.09 (84%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Hossa – Carcillo – Toews7:45
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Sharp – Kane – Kruger10:21
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Frolik – Bollig – Saad5:49
xG 0.02–0.22 (9%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Leddy13:52
xG 0.43–0.10 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Keith – Seabrook18:14
xG 0.68–0.47 (59%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson15:22
xG 0.10–0.24 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestNichol – Murray – Reaves5:56
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Oshie – Perron – Schwartz2:15
xG 0.04–0.05 (43%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Perron12:39
xG 0.18–0.20 (46%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Porter – Stewart – Berglund2:17
xG 0.03–0.10 (22%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Pietrangelo3:24
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk13:14
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Jackman – Polak2:52
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).