Thu, Feb 28, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Minnesota Wild 4, Phoenix Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 28 | 211 | 04 | 423 |
| PHX | 011 | 15 | 212 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35MINJason ZuckerAssists: Matt Cullen, Devin Setoguchi · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 14:01MINDany HeatleyAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 6:03MINDany HeatleyAssists: Matt Cullen, Devin Setoguchi · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 10:58PHXRostislav KleslaAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Mikkel Boedker · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 16:02MINJared SpurgeonPPGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.39 xG4–1
- P3 15:21PHXKeith YandleAssists: Derek Morris, Mikkel Boedker · Snap, 0.00 xG4–2
- P3 19:01PHXShane DoanAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Steve Sullivan · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:36MINTorrey Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P1 9:01PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:01MINMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:51MINZach Parise: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:58PHXAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:37PHXRaffi Torres: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:04PHXRaffi Torres: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:58PHXSteve Sullivan: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:17MINClayton Stoner: Interference2 min
- P3 12:51MINTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:51PHXMichael Stone: Diving2 min
- P3 18:12PHXKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:35MINMatt Cullen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lombardi won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle10:01
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Cullen – Setoguchi – Zucker5:44
xG 0.23–0.06 (78%)attempts 6–6goals 1–2
- Heatley – Bouchard – Granlund8:38
xG 0.21–0.35 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Rupp – Brodziak – Mitchell9:00
xG 0.24–0.55 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin14:51
xG 0.79–0.64 (55%)attempts 13–20goals 2–0
- Stoner – Spurgeon13:37
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Falk9:32
xG 0.06–0.39 (14%)attempts 6–14goals 0–2
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Gordon – Korpikoski6:52
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Lombardi – Boedker2:17
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Bissonnette – Chipchura – Johnson6:05
xG 0.16–0.06 (71%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Torres – Moss – Gordon2:17
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle16:48
xG 0.76–0.25 (75%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Klesla – Stone9:23
xG 0.43–0.39 (52%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson12:55
xG 0.24–0.50 (33%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).