Fri, Mar 1, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 27 | 04 | 06 | 217 |
| STL | 08 | 211 | 211 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:30EDMTaylor HallAssists: Jordan Eberle, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 17:53EDMRyan WhitneyAssists: Ryan Smyth, Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 3:38STLJaden SchwartzAssists: T.J. Oshie, David Backes · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 10:30STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Chris Stewart · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 4:28STLVladimir SobotkaGWGAssists: Adam Cracknell, Chris Porter · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 14:37STLDavid BackesAssists: T.J. Oshie, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:01STLRyan Reaves: Interference2 min
- P1 11:58EDMSam Gagner: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:20STLMatt D'Agostini: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:41STLChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:56EDMLadislav Smid: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins4:43
xG 0.51–0.09 (84%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Smyth – Belanger – Yakupov5:32
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Eager – Petrell – VandeVelde4:13
xG 0.07–0.22 (23%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov4:37
xG 0.16–0.33 (32%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhitney – Peckham13:15
xG 0.53–0.14 (79%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Schultz – Schultz16:56
xG 1.09–1.11 (50%)attempts 18–24goals 1–1
- Schultz – Petry2:02
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Schwartz12:02
xG 1.33–0.62 (68%)attempts 20–10goals 2–1
- Porter – Sobotka – D'Agostini8:00
xG 0.32–0.06 (85%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Stewart – Berglund – Perron10:42
xG 0.75–0.57 (57%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Nichol – Cracknell – Reaves8:47
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Pietrangelo17:51
xG 1.68–0.89 (65%)attempts 26–14goals 1–1
- Polak – Russell13:02
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Redden – Shattenkirk12:52
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).