Sat, Mar 2, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 19 | 08 | 224 |
| CAR | 313 | 210 | 111 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:23CARJussi JokinenAssists: Riley Nash, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 8:39CARJiri TlustyAssists: Alexander Semin · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 9:28CARJussi JokinenGWGAssists: Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P1 17:41FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Jerred Smithson, George Parros · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 5:22CARRiley NashAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P2 13:03CAREric StaalAssists: Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–5
- P2 19:15FLAFilip KubaAssists: Marcel Goc, Tyson Strachan · Slap, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 12:01CAREric StaalAssists: Alexander Semin, Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:22FLAJerred Smithson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:21FLADrew Shore: Holding2 min
- P2 19:52FLAStephen Weiss: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:52CARJustin Faulk: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:09FLAStephen Weiss: Elbowing2 min
- P3 2:09FLAStephen Weiss: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:09FLAStephen Weiss: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 2:09CARJustin Faulk: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:37FLAMarcel Goc: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestParros – Smithson – Matthias2:07
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Kopecky – Weiss – Upshall2:38
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Goc – Skille – Matthias2:37
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Goc – Fleischmann – Skille2:42
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Strachan – Gudbranson2:44
xG 0.12–0.12 (52%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kuba – Campbell2:52
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Robak – Gudbranson5:34
xG 0.14–0.18 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Tlusty11:50
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Dwyer – Nash7:46
xG 0.65–0.26 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 3–0
- LaRose – Staal – Skinner10:52
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Wallace – Westgarth – Bowman8:45
xG 0.15–0.38 (29%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Faulk2:27
xG 0.66–0.07 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Corvo – Gleason12:20
xG 0.57–0.09 (87%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Gleason – McBain8:06
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).