Sat, Mar 2, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Anaheim Ducks 4, Phoenix Coyotes 5 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 114 | 211 | 17 | 03 | 0 | 435 |
| PHX | 18 | 18 | 217 | 04 | 1 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Saku Koivu, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 10:30PHXMatthew LombardiAssists: Raffi Torres, Shane Doan · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 12:32PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: David Moss, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 12:59ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 17:26ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Daniel Winnik, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 0:16PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Antoine Vermette · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 6:25ANASaku KoivuPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 13:31PHXSteve SullivanAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PHX Mikkel Boedker stopped
- 2. ANA Nick Bonino stopped
- 3. PHX Steve Sullivan scored
- 4. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 5. PHX Lauri Korpikoski stopped
- 6. ANA Saku Koivu stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:00PHXDerek Morris: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:38PHXKyle Chipchura: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:38ANASaku Koivu: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:28PHXKyle Chipchura: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- OT 3:02PHXAntoine Vermette: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Winnik – Cogliano9:48
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Palmieri2:43
xG 0.05–0.02 (73%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Selanne – Ryan – Bonino3:57
xG 0.03–0.01 (79%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Maroon – Etem2:02
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Souray – Beauchemin17:37
xG 0.15–0.50 (24%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
- Lydman – Lovejoy14:37
xG 0.64–1.02 (39%)attempts 18–17goals 2–2
- Sbisa – Fowler15:27
xG 0.26–0.97 (21%)attempts 7–28goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – Chipchura – Boedker5:29
xG 0.82–0.31 (73%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Doan – Torres – Lombardi15:14
xG 0.73–0.27 (73%)attempts 22–9goals 1–1
- Vermette – Moss – Korpikoski3:44
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Bissonnette – Chipchura – Johnson5:05
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson17:41
xG 0.98–0.25 (80%)attempts 23–8goals 2–0
- Yandle – Stone5:30
xG 0.71–0.35 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Klesla – Stone11:38
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).