Sat, Mar 2, 2013·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Nashville Predators 1, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 06 | 17 | 119 |
| SJS | 116 | 114 | 09 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:47SJSDan BoylePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Logan Couture · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 9:12SJSJoe PavelskiPPGWGAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–2
- P3 14:30NSHGabriel BourqueSHAssists: Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:38NSHScott Hannan: Interference2 min
- P1 17:28NSHKevin Klein: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:28SJSJames Sheppard: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:56NSHRyan Ellis: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:08NSHPaul Gaustad: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Gaustad – Clune – Kostitsyn2:35
xG 0.06–0.01 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Bourque9:40
xG 0.39–0.39 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Wilson13:23
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Spaling – Smith3:09
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Blum11:16
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Blum – Ellis2:00
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hannan – Ellis13:55
xG 0.11–0.27 (29%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Pavelski – Kennedy12:46
xG 0.80–0.36 (69%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Handzus – Burish – Desjardins5:57
xG 0.40–0.09 (82%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Clowe – Couture6:15
xG 0.22–0.05 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gomez – Desjardins – Sheppard2:00
xG 0.17–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Irwin17:57
xG 0.75–0.14 (84%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
- Murray – Braun12:52
xG 0.70–0.44 (62%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Stuart – Vlasic20:00
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).