Sun, Mar 3, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 2, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 111 | 112 | 08 | 231 |
| CGY | 16 | 110 | 29 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:49VANChris HigginsAssists: Jannik Hansen · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 15:44CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 2:36VANJannik HansenAssists: Cam Barker, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–1
- P2 6:15CGYLee StempniakAssists: Matt Stajan, Derek Smith · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 12:36CGYJarome IginlaGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 19:37CGYMichael CammalleriENAssists: Lee Stempniak, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:25VANDaniel Sedin: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 12:18CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P1 18:55CGYCurtis Glencross: Interference2 min
- P2 0:16VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:18VANTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:18CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:18CGYBrian McGrattan: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:35VANDavid Booth: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 18:42VANJannik Hansen: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lapierre won the faceoff against Cammalleri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLapierre – Booth – Kassian9:27
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Higgins – Hansen – Raymond10:41
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows11:54
xG 0.82–0.77 (51%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Sestito – Weise – Schroeder4:03
xG 0.04–0.01 (77%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlberts – Tanev11:54
xG 0.45–0.29 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Barker – Edler12:08
xG 0.72–0.57 (56%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Edler – Tanev2:25
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Hudler – Cervenka11:39
xG 0.68–0.22 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Stajan – Stempniak3:47
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Stajan – Stempniak – Glencross9:32
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Tanguay – Cammalleri – Baertschi7:22
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Brodie13:53
xG 0.41–0.22 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Wideman – Butler16:50
xG 0.49–0.41 (54%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Wideman – Bouwmeester2:00
xG 0.07–0.03 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).