Mon, Mar 4, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 08 | 210 | 012 | 230 |
| TOR | 15 | 05 | 313 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:34TORNazem KadriAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 5:43NJDMarek ZidlickyAssists: Ryan Carter · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 11:18NJDMarek ZidlickyAssists: Ryan Carter · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 0:39TORJay McClementUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 7:25TORClarke MacArthurPPGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Cody Franson · Snap, 0.32 xG2–3
- P3 9:52TORPhil KesselAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Carl Gunnarsson · Snap, 0.12 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:36TORFrazer McLaren: Boarding2 min
- P1 7:28NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
- P1 11:29NJDAlexei Ponikarovsky: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:38TORCody Franson: Interference2 min
- P3 1:56NJDStefan Matteau: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:17NJDAndrei Loktionov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:52TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:47TORNazem Kadri: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Clarkson – Zajac10:23
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 20–4goals 0–2
- Bernier – Henrique – Matteau4:24
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Barch – Gionta – Carter3:42
xG 0.09–0.07 (55%)attempts 2–1goals 2–0
- Ponikarovsky – Kovalchuk – Henrique2:23
xG 0.07–0.06 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Fayne13:37
xG 0.71–0.34 (67%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Zidlicky11:21
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 17–11goals 2–1
- Greene – Larsson16:08
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Komarov – Kadri12:22
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- McClement – Grabovski – Kulemin8:29
xG 0.29–0.26 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak15:06
xG 0.48–0.57 (46%)attempts 12–22goals 1–0
- Orr – Steckel – McLaren2:31
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Kostka15:00
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Franson – Fraser12:11
xG 0.15–0.31 (32%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
- Phaneuf – Holzer14:04
xG 0.27–0.60 (31%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).