Tue, Mar 5, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 2, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 28 | 06 | 011 | 225 |
| NYR | 26 | 06 | 28 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 7:18PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 17:07PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
- P1 19:19NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 2:50NYRRick NashGWGAssists: Dan Girardi · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 11:42NYRRick NashAssists: Derek Stepan, Ryan Callahan · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:09PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 6:50NYRStu Bickel: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:33NYRRick Nash: Holding2 min
- P1 16:53NYRRyan Callahan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:03PHIBruno Gervais: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:49PHISimon Gagne: Holding2 min
- P3 12:22PHIScott Hartnell: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:06PHIScott Hartnell: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:06NYRStu Bickel: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Simmonds – Schenn13:14
xG 1.17–0.62 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek12:07
xG 0.53–0.39 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Gagne – Talbot – Couturier9:06
xG 0.04–0.37 (11%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Knuble – Fedotenko – Rinaldo6:24
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Gustafsson2:31
xG 0.38–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Gustafsson8:33
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 12–5goals 0–2
- Coburn – Gervais6:01
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Boyle – Powe9:42
xG 0.48–0.19 (71%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Hagelin – Stepan13:16
xG 0.37–0.41 (48%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Callahan – Miller11:17
xG 0.78–0.93 (45%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Del Zotto5:33
xG 0.53–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi9:51
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto3:31
xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).