Wed, Mar 6, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 17 | 07 | 222 |
| CHI | 112 | 09 | 211 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:51CHIAndrew ShawPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Brandon Saad · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 18:20COLJohn MitchellAssists: Chuck Kobasew, Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 13:17COLMatt DucheneAssists: PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 2:19CHIJonathan ToewsSHAssists: Dave Bolland, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 19:10CHIDaniel CarcilloGWGAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Marcus Kruger · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:43COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:02COLChuck Kobasew: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:46COLJohn Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:15CHIMichal Rozsival: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:25CHIMichal Rozsival: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Palushaj – O'Reilly9:58
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Stastny – Landeskog2:19
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – Landeskog9:22
xG 0.12–0.32 (27%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – Duchene11:18
xG 0.38–1.00 (28%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Byrne – Hunwick16:18
xG 0.75–0.59 (56%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- O'Byrne – O'Brien2:38
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Zanon – O'Brien10:42
xG 0.68–0.83 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestCarcillo – Stalberg – Kruger2:53
xG 0.69–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Carcillo – Toews – Saad7:51
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Bickell – Stalberg – Shaw5:33
xG 0.24–0.18 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Sharp – Bolland – Kane8:37
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson15:28
xG 1.24–0.52 (71%)attempts 20–14goals 1–1
- Rozsival – Leddy14:46
xG 0.39–0.56 (41%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook14:42
xG 0.60–0.83 (42%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).