Thu, Mar 7, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New York Rangers 2, New York Islanders 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 013 | 07 | 115 | 12 | 237 |
| NYI | 112 | 08 | 09 | 00 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:51NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Colin McDonald, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 14:37NYRRick NashAssists: Derek Stepan, Carl Hagelin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- OT 0:42NYRMarian GaborikPPGWGAssists: Rick Nash, Derek Stepan · Slap, 0.15 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P2 11:07NYICasey Cizikas: Holding2 min
- P2 11:07NYRStu Bickel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:07NYIJoe Finley: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:05NYIKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:21NYIMichael Grabner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 0:42NYIKevin Poulin: Game misconduct team staff0 min
- OT 0:42NYIKyle Okposo: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Callahan – Miller14:43
xG 1.35–0.41 (77%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Nash – Hagelin – Stepan16:39
xG 1.59–1.16 (58%)attempts 33–16goals 1–1
- Pyatt – Boyle – Powe10:15
xG 0.38–0.47 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Del Zotto15:42
xG 1.51–0.55 (73%)attempts 23–11goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh19:18
xG 1.37–0.60 (70%)attempts 30–15goals 1–0
- Hamrlik – Eminger9:36
xG 0.40–0.63 (39%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Moulson – Tavares15:01
xG 0.86–0.78 (52%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
- Boulton – Martin – Cizikas7:57
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey13:13
xG 0.42–0.52 (45%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Reasoner – McDonald – Grabner7:54
xG 0.73–0.89 (45%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Hickey9:44
xG 0.60–0.39 (61%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Streit – Hickey4:59
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Martinek – Streit4:25
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).