Thu, Mar 7, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 4, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 217 | 05 | 26 | 428 |
| CAR | 013 | 221 | 09 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22MTLBrandon PrustAssists: Alexei Emelin, Lars Eller · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 8:19MTLJosh GorgesAssists: Brandon Prust, P.K. Subban · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 6:07CARJordan StaalAssists: Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 10:27CARDrayson BowmanAssists: Jeremy Welsh · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 6:09MTLLars EllerGWGAssists: Josh Gorges, Brandon Prust · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 7:56MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Lars Eller · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:06CARBrett Sutter: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:45CARJussi Jokinen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:48MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:20MTLYannick Weber: Interference2 min
- P1 13:20CARJordan Staal: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:13MTLMichael Ryder: Interference2 min
- P2 13:18CARJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:52MTLYannick Weber: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 17:21MTLFrancis Bouillon: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:21CARBrett Sutter: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:21MTLFrancis Bouillon: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:42MTLBrian Gionta: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:52CARAlexander Semin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:28CARJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:35CARJay Harrison: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Eller – Galchenyuk11:11
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher9:40
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moen – Plekanec6:32
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Gionta – Ryder – Plekanec4:32
xG 0.13–0.39 (24%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Bouillon – Gorges2:21
xG 0.07–0.06 (56%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Markov – Subban3:43
xG 0.11–0.16 (40%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Subban2:23
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Tlusty12:33
xG 0.81–0.24 (77%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Staal – Skinner10:06
xG 0.41–0.37 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Sutter – Wallace4:32
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Wallace – Bowman4:16
xG 0.05–0.29 (14%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Faulk13:42
xG 0.68–0.19 (78%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- McBain – Sanguinetti10:15
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Corvo – Gleason12:46
xG 0.58–0.70 (45%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).