Thu, Mar 7, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Vancouver Canucks 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 09 | 016 | 19 | 01 | 135 |
| CBJ | 18 | 011 | 06 | 12 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:33CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Nick Foligno, Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.23 xG0–1
- P3 1:05VANHenrik SedinAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- OT 4:03CBJMatt CalvertGWGAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:40VANMaxim Lapierre: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:23CBJFedor Tyutin: Holding2 min
- P3 11:26VANAndrew Alberts: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:17VANHenrik Sedin: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lapierre won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLapierre – Booth – Kassian8:52
xG 0.63–0.10 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Kassian2:02
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Higgins – Hansen – Raymond9:55
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Sestito – Weise – Schroeder3:47
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Garrison17:51
xG 0.48–0.15 (77%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Alberts – Tanev4:43
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Barker – Edler4:55
xG 0.38–0.23 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Calvert – Atkinson12:08
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen11:38
xG 0.75–0.57 (57%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Prospal – Brassard – Letestu11:21
xG 0.15–0.27 (35%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Erixon15:35
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Prout15:09
xG 0.76–0.76 (50%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Johnson17:06
xG 0.57–0.99 (37%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).