Thu, Mar 7, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Winnipeg Jets 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 113 | 07 | 18 | 228 |
| TBL | 012 | 06 | 111 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:05WPGEric TangradiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 6:57TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Ryan Malone · Slap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 15:52WPGBryan LittleGWGAssists: Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:45WPGEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:19TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:19WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:05WPGOlli Jokinen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:57WPGPaul Postma: Interference2 min
- P2 7:57WPGMark Stuart: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:30TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:40TBLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:55WPGOlli Jokinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little11:40
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Wellwood – Slater – Tangradi3:30
xG 0.19–0.07 (71%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Antropov – Miettinen – Wright8:59
xG 0.14–0.24 (36%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Kane – Burmistrov16:32
xG 0.48–0.66 (42%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian17:03
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Stuart – Byfuglien3:33
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stuart – Postma7:19
xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Pyatt – Palat2:25
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Thompson – Conacher – Palat6:38
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos3:27
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
- Malone – Purcell – Stamkos6:13
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman10:16
xG 0.41–0.19 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Brewer – Lee2:13
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brewer – Carle11:23
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).