Thu, Mar 7, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
St. Louis Blues 6, Phoenix Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 16 | 310 | 214 | 630 |
| PHX | 19 | 16 | 111 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:07STLChris StewartAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, David Perron · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 18:54PHXDavid MossSHAssists: Boyd Gordon · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 0:41PHXShane DoanAssists: Martin Hanzal · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 5:47STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Barret Jackman, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 7:59STLPatrik BerglundAssists: David Perron, Chris Stewart · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 10:23STLScott NicholGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 6:53STLVladimir SobotkaAssists: Chris Stewart, David Perron · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 15:04STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: T.J. Oshie, David Backes · Wrist, 0.37 xG6–2
- P3 19:35PHXKeith YandlePPAssists: Steve Sullivan, Derek Morris · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:38STLRyan Reaves: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:25STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:11PHXMartin Hanzal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:20STLVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:44PHXDerek Morris: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:35PHXAntoine Vermette: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:25STLT.J. Oshie: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:24STLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:24PHXKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:35STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Berglund – Perron11:22
xG 0.92–0.05 (94%)attempts 12–7goals 3–0
- Nichol – Cracknell – Reaves3:02
xG 0.02–0.01 (56%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Porter – Sobotka – D'Agostini8:22
xG 0.13–0.28 (31%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Schwartz10:22
xG 0.12–0.35 (26%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Pietrangelo15:47
xG 0.96–0.56 (63%)attempts 15–18goals 4–1
- Polak – Russell10:42
xG 0.36–0.10 (79%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Redden – Shattenkirk11:28
xG 0.15–0.22 (42%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- Doan – Vermette – Korpikoski8:06
xG 0.03–0.03 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Hanzal – Boedker7:28
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Torres – Lombardi – Moss7:21
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Hanzal – Boedker2:29
xG 0.05–0.09 (38%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Stone11:23
xG 0.45–0.10 (81%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle14:15
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson12:20
xG 0.22–0.87 (20%)attempts 8–13goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).