Fri, Mar 8, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Ottawa Senators 3, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 214 | 08 | 117 | 339 |
| NYR | 213 | 09 | 013 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:18OTTZack SmithAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Daniel Alfredsson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 10:50OTTPatrick WierciochPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Milan Michalek · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 11:03NYRRick NashAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Anton Stralman · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 17:39NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Carl Hagelin · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 15:19OTTJakob SilfverbergGWGAssists: Eric Gryba, Chris Phillips · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:25NYRMarian Gaborik: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:49OTTChris Phillips: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:49NYRMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:49NYRMicheal Haley: Charging2 min
- P1 13:49OTTChris Phillips: Instigator face shield2 min
- P1 13:49OTTChris Phillips: Instigator2 min
- P1 13:49OTTChris Phillips: Misconduct10 min
- P2 2:10NYRRoman Hamrlik: Interference2 min
- P2 17:40NYRAnton Stralman: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:20OTTJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGreening – Turris – Silfverberg10:40
xG 1.08–0.42 (72%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Neil – Condra – Zibanejad3:05
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Michalek – Smith13:54
xG 1.02–0.89 (53%)attempts 21–15goals 1–1
- Neil – Stone – Zibanejad7:45
xG 0.19–0.36 (34%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Gryba12:59
xG 1.47–0.77 (66%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Methot14:18
xG 1.03–0.59 (63%)attempts 23–14goals 1–1
- Gonchar – Benoit3:01
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Nash – Hagelin12:31
xG 0.57–0.29 (67%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Pyatt – Powe – Miller7:20
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Callahan – Stepan16:01
xG 1.06–1.40 (43%)attempts 19–24goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Del Zotto14:06
xG 0.92–0.66 (58%)attempts 20–18goals 1–0
- Hamrlik – Eminger5:42
xG 0.31–0.13 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Eminger – Del Zotto2:15
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).