Fri, Mar 8, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Winnipeg Jets 3, Florida Panthers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 27 | 012 | 04 | 15 | 328 |
| FLA | 111 | 014 | 112 | 03 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:35WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 17:48WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 19:47FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Drew Shore, Peter Mueller · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 5:50FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Jack Skille · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 4:19WPGDustin ByfuglienGWGAssists: Grant Clitsome, Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:37WPGJim Slater: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:22WPGEric Tangradi: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:22FLANolan Yonkman: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:27WPGJim Slater: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:13FLADrew Shore: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:11WPGKyle Wellwood: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:42WPGZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthias won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Slater – Tangradi5:21
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Antropov – Miettinen – Wright6:45
xG 0.13–0.12 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little12:19
xG 0.73–0.97 (43%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- Antropov – Miettinen – Kane2:41
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Clitsome18:15
xG 0.91–0.54 (63%)attempts 21–15goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Bogosian16:57
xG 0.30–0.56 (35%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Stuart – Postma8:46
xG 0.00–0.89 (0%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestParros – Santorelli – Rheault3:30
xG 0.62–0.03 (96%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Mueller – Shore – Huberdeau11:16
xG 0.77–0.21 (79%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Kopecky – Skille – Matthias8:32
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Skille – Matthias – Rheault3:10
xG 0.01–0.07 (8%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Strachan17:39
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 18–13goals 0–2
- Robak – Gudbranson2:44
xG 0.10–0.02 (80%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Yonkman – Robak6:21
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).