Sat, Mar 9, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 011 | 06 | 013 | 030 |
| CBJ | 17 | 26 | 011 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:46CBJCam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 5:12CBJJack JohnsonPPAssists: Derick Brassard, R.J. Umberger · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 6:35CBJNick FolignoAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:55CBJAdrian Aucoin: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:33DETJordin Tootoo: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:40CBJR.J. Umberger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:20DETPavel Datsyuk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 8:50DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P2 14:23DETBrendan Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 17:39CBJAdrian Aucoin: Holding2 min
- P2 17:39DETJustin Abdelkader: Diving2 min
- P3 2:14DETBrian Lashoff: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:13CBJColton Gillies: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:34CBJVinny Prospal: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:06DETDamien Brunner: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader2:58
xG 0.42–0.04 (91%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Miller – Emmerton7:28
xG 0.27–0.10 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Abdelkader6:03
xG 0.20–0.10 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Cleary – Franzen – Brunner4:24
xG 0.02–0.13 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson11:24
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Kindl – Lashoff7:40
xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith10:25
xG 0.34–0.78 (31%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Foligno – Johansen8:13
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Drazenovic – Calvert – Atkinson4:53
xG 0.24–0.03 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Drazenovic – Letestu – Calvert2:38
xG 0.07–0.04 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Gillies5:57
xG 0.08–0.18 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Erixon10:49
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Erixon2:47
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Prout12:25
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).