Sun, Mar 10, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vancouver Canucks 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 012 | 17 | 18 | 227 |
| MIN | 211 | 111 | 110 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:24MINZach PariseAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 18:31MINJason ZuckerAssists: Matt Cullen, Clayton Stoner · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 4:12MINJared SpurgeonPPGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 7:51VANChris HigginsAssists: Andrew Alberts · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 1:02VANHenrik SedinAssists: Jason Garrison, David Booth · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 6:29MINZach PariseAssists: Ryan Suter, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 10:49VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:49MINMikko Koivu: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:49MINJustin Falk: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:49MINCal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:49VANAlexander Edler: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:49VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:43VANTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:43MINMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:08MINZenon Konopka: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 14:01MINMatt Cullen: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:09VANJason Garrison: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:58VANMason Raymond: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:40MINClayton Stoner: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:46MINClayton Stoner: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:23VANAndrew Alberts: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Booth – Kassian6:21
xG 0.46–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows9:28
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Sestito – Weise3:18
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Sestito – Weise – Schroeder2:32
xG 0.03–0.09 (25%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlberts – Tanev2:29
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Ballard3:03
xG 0.08–0.10 (42%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ballard – Edler5:29
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Setoguchi – Zucker6:48
xG 0.65–0.21 (76%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle12:34
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Rupp – Konopka – Mitchell8:49
xG 0.13–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Clutterbuck6:37
xG 0.11–0.55 (16%)attempts 3–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin16:38
xG 0.83–0.37 (69%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Falk – Prosser10:20
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Stoner – Spurgeon14:31
xG 0.70–0.84 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).