Tue, Mar 12, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Vancouver Canucks 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 012 | 118 | 07 | 01 | 1 | 238 |
| CBJ | 010 | 16 | 010 | 01 | 0 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:04CBJMark LetestuAssists: Derick Brassard, Vinny Prospal · Backhand, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 16:11VANJason GarrisonAssists: Jannik Hansen, Cam Barker · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Ryan Johansen stopped
- 2. VAN Chris Higgins stopped
- 3. CBJ Matt Calvert stopped
- 4. VAN Mason Raymond scored
- 5. CBJ Mark Letestu stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:23VANDavid Booth: Interference2 min
- P1 15:57CBJDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:09CBJRyan Johansen: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:08VANZack Kassian: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Higgins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Raymond – Ebbett9:37
xG 0.75–0.34 (69%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows13:59
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Sestito – Weise4:11
xG 0.00–0.08 (1%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Higgins – Booth – Kassian10:53
xG 0.12–0.53 (18%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev14:42
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Garrison17:00
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Barker – Edler2:36
xG 0.12–0.08 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Brassard – Letestu11:07
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Boll – Drazenovic – Gillies4:17
xG 0.04–0.08 (34%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson9:50
xG 0.42–0.53 (45%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen12:31
xG 0.07–0.39 (15%)attempts 5–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Prout16:47
xG 0.72–0.32 (69%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Aucoin – Erixon12:06
xG 0.39–0.12 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson19:09
xG 0.40–1.14 (26%)attempts 10–30goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).