Tue, Mar 12, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 19 | 18 | 226 |
| WPG | 111 | 212 | 211 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:06WPGNik AntropovPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Kyle Wellwood · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 0:38TORPhil KesselUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 1:03WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Bryan Little, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 10:43WPGKyle WellwoodGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 11:16WPGEvander KaneAssists: Nik Antropov · Snap, 0.23 xG1–4
- P3 12:53WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Eric Tangradi, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.21 xG1–5
- P3 13:14TORPhil KesselAssists: Korbinian Holzer, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:46WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:46TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 5:22TORMark Fraser: Interference2 min
- P1 11:23WPGAndrew Ladd: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:23TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:23TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:15WPGDerek Meech: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:25TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:25WPGGrant Clitsome: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:42WPGNik Antropov: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:48WPGMark Stuart: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:05TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:05WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:06TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:32TORFrazer McLaren: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Kulemin – Frattin3:49
xG 0.20–0.02 (92%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Orr – McClement – McLaren3:35
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- McClement – Grabovski – Kulemin3:19
xG 0.08–0.09 (46%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Frattin – Kadri5:14
xG 0.09–0.25 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Franson3:31
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Holzer12:16
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Franson – Fraser10:34
xG 0.26–0.35 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Wellwood – Wright8:54
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little10:57
xG 0.86–0.62 (58%)attempts 16–9goals 2–1
- Thorburn – Slater – Tangradi3:13
xG 0.08–0.14 (37%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Miettinen – Kane11:45
xG 0.14–0.52 (21%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Clitsome17:13
xG 1.25–0.48 (72%)attempts 21–13goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Bogosian13:05
xG 0.47–0.46 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Meech – Stuart11:24
xG 0.13–0.62 (17%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).