Tue, Mar 12, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 09 | 119 | 113 | 241 |
| STL | 17 | 210 | 14 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:42STLChris StewartAssists: David Backes, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 10:39STLDavid PerronAssists: Patrik Berglund · Deflected, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 11:41SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Scott Gomez, Matt Irwin · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 19:53STLChris PorterGWGAssists: Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 13:32SJSDan BoylePPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 18:44STLChris StewartENAssists: Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:48STLScott Nichol: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:48SJSAndrew Desjardins: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:48SJSAndrew Desjardins: Interference2 min
- P1 14:37STLRyan Reaves: Interference2 min
- P1 19:04SJSMatt Irwin: Interference2 min
- P3 10:00SJSDan Boyle: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:21STLScott Nichol: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:28STLBarret Jackman: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Clowe – Pavelski12:48
xG 0.98–0.32 (75%)attempts 20–6goals 0–2
- Thornton – Couture – Wingels3:35
xG 0.45–0.03 (93%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Handzus – Burish – Desjardins6:28
xG 0.45–0.18 (72%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Gomez – Sheppard – Wingels4:53
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Murray10:24
xG 1.21–0.39 (75%)attempts 16–13goals 0–2
- Boyle – Irwin9:24
xG 0.62–0.05 (93%)attempts 18–3goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Braun8:04
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Berglund – Perron4:44
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Porter – Sobotka – D'Agostini3:26
xG 0.01–0.05 (18%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Porter – Cracknell – Sobotka2:03
xG 0.01–0.12 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Stewart – Berglund – Perron2:01
xG 0.03–0.14 (16%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Redden – Shattenkirk9:07
xG 0.08–0.42 (16%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Jackman – Pietrangelo17:33
xG 0.24–0.71 (25%)attempts 10–26goals 2–1
- Polak – Russell16:31
xG 0.40–1.41 (22%)attempts 8–24goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).