Tue, Mar 12, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Anaheim Ducks 2, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 03 | 04 | 214 | 221 |
| MIN | 18 | 014 | 09 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:00MINDevin SetoguchiPPAssists: Matt Cullen, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 3:06ANAPatrick MaroonAssists: Toni Lydman, Brandon McMillan · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 16:56ANALuca SbisaGWGAssists: Teemu Selanne, Daniel Winnik · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:55MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:08ANABrandon McMillan: Charging2 min
- P1 9:38ANASaku Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:08ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 14:08MINZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:15ANALuca Sbisa: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:45ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:21ANACorey Perry: Interference5 min
- P2 4:21ANACorey Perry: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 9:23MINKyle Brodziak: Interference2 min
- P3 14:34ANABryan Allen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:34MINMike Rupp: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:50MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Cogliano – Beleskey – Holland2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano2:24
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Selanne – Getzlaf – Ryan3:11
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Winnik2:55
xG 0.02–0.08 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Sbisa6:31
xG 0.23–0.10 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Souray – Beauchemin7:13
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Allen – Fowler9:30
xG 0.16–0.49 (25%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle8:04
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Clutterbuck4:39
xG 0.22–0.08 (74%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Setoguchi2:11
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Spurgeon12:27
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin9:28
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Falk4:54
xG 0.31–0.31 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).