Tue, Mar 12, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 4, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 112 | 110 | 432 |
| COL | 012 | 013 | 010 | 035 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:20EDMShawn HorcoffGWGAssists: Ales Hemsky, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 16:18EDMSam GagnerAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Ryan Whitney · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–0
- P2 12:16EDMMagnus PaajarviAssists: Nick Schultz, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–0
- P3 6:32EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:37EDMShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:57COLRyan O'Byrne: Holding2 min
- P2 14:26COLRyan O'Byrne: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:44EDMRyan Whitney: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:55COLPA Parenteau: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 18:43COLRyan Wilson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Paajarvi – Yakupov10:53
xG 1.10–0.24 (82%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Jones – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:26
xG 0.27–0.43 (38%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Hall7:54
xG 0.51–0.69 (43%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Smyth – Brown – Petrell9:54
xG 0.12–0.70 (14%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry17:43
xG 1.05–0.97 (52%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Whitney – Schultz14:17
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Schultz – Potter13:26
xG 0.68–1.00 (41%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Palushaj – O'Reilly10:06
xG 0.64–0.05 (92%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – Landeskog10:22
xG 1.01–0.96 (51%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Kobasew – Bordeleau – McLeod6:16
xG 0.07–0.03 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – Duchene11:19
xG 0.26–1.30 (17%)attempts 8–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – O'Brien15:58
xG 0.85–0.32 (72%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hunwick14:18
xG 0.99–0.95 (51%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Johnson – Wilson13:18
xG 0.26–0.77 (25%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).