Wed, Mar 13, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Detroit Red Wings 2, Calgary Flames 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 115 | 112 | 011 | 238 |
| CGY | 26 | 05 | 311 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:20DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 5:55CGYAlex TanguayPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 9:52CGYJay BouwmeesterAssists: Lee Stempniak, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 16:39DETValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Kyle Quincey, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- P3 5:37CGYLee StempniakGWGAssists: Curtis Glencross, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 9:12CGYCurtis GlencrossUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 10:00CGYBlake ComeauAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:16DETBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:09CGYCurtis Glencross: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:54CGYJiri Hudler: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 0:29DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Filppula – Brunner10:35
xG 1.30–0.66 (66%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Datsyuk – Franzen – Abdelkader13:01
xG 0.60–0.29 (67%)attempts 19–5goals 1–1
- Eaves – Miller – Emmerton8:27
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 13–3goals 0–1
- Cleary – Andersson – Nyquist8:29
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson14:28
xG 1.05–0.58 (65%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Kindl – Lashoff13:29
xG 0.98–0.66 (60%)attempts 22–10goals 0–2
- Quincey – Smith12:36
xG 0.65–0.44 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Cammalleri13:16
xG 0.67–0.58 (53%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Hudler – Comeau2:22
xG 0.01–0.06 (19%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Begin – McGrattan – Jackman3:27
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Hudler – Comeau – Backlund10:02
xG 0.33–0.61 (35%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Brodie18:04
xG 0.98–0.89 (52%)attempts 16–18goals 2–0
- Butler – Smith10:00
xG 0.22–0.46 (32%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Wideman – Giordano16:59
xG 0.34–1.52 (18%)attempts 4–24goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).