Thu, Mar 14, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 06 | 010 | 312 | 328 |
| TOR | 09 | 18 | 012 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:01TORTyler BozakAssists: Cody Franson, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 12:42PITPascal DupuisAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 17:50PITPascal DupuisGWGAssists: Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 19:50PITCraig AdamsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.49 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:54TORJohn-Michael Liles: Interference2 min
- P1 9:51PITBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:47TORMatt Frattin: Charging2 min
- P2 11:43TORLeo Komarov: Holding2 min
- P3 13:19PITBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:37PITBrooks Orpik: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby14:10
xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 20–13goals 2–0
- Neal – Sutter – Bennett7:58
xG 0.34–0.16 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale4:27
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Jeffrey8:05
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Despres13:16
xG 0.59–0.30 (67%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Martin – Letang2:16
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Letang2:17
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Kulemin – Kadri11:30
xG 0.99–0.13 (89%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Komarov – Frattin9:54
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak16:15
xG 0.41–0.92 (31%)attempts 14–21goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Holzer15:18
xG 1.17–0.75 (61%)attempts 13–22goals 0–2
- Franson – Fraser10:01
xG 0.21–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Liles – Gunnarsson10:58
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).