Thu, Mar 14, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 16 | 28 | 325 |
| CAR | 216 | 07 | 015 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14CARAlexander SeminAssists: Eric Staal, Jiri Tlusty · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 8:17CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Tim Gleason, Joe Corvo · Tip-in, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 5:56WSHJoey CrabbAssists: Aaron Volpatti, Karl Alzner · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 1:01WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 17:44WSHMike RibeiroGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:56CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:11WSHJohn Carlson: Interference2 min
- P2 8:07WSHMike Ribeiro: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00CAREric Staal: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:21WSHJoey Crabb: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:52CARJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:25WSHEric Fehr: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:25CARAlexander Semin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:44WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Brouwer – Johansson9:01
xG 0.68–0.36 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Crabb – Beagle – Volpatti3:24
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ribeiro – Ward9:10
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Ovechkin – Backstrom8:08
xG 0.12–0.15 (44%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Carlson9:17
xG 0.62–0.19 (76%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Poti – Carlson6:22
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Poti – Oleksy7:42
xG 0.22–0.11 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Tlusty14:06
xG 1.41–0.53 (73%)attempts 22–15goals 1–1
- Brent – Wallace – Terry4:51
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Staal – Skinner12:47
xG 0.26–0.43 (37%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Nash – Bowman10:42
xG 0.10–0.53 (16%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – Sanguinetti12:09
xG 0.97–0.41 (70%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Harrison – Faulk15:10
xG 0.58–0.49 (54%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Corvo – Gleason14:41
xG 0.34–0.56 (38%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).