Thu, Mar 14, 2013·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
New York Islanders 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 013 | 19 | 17 | 229 |
| TBL | 06 | 06 | 06 | 018 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:22NYIJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Matt Moulson, Brad Boyes · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 19:20NYIBrad BoyesENAssists: Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–0
Penalties (3)
- P2 9:55TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:38NYIMark Streit: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:31NYIFrans Nielsen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestAucoin – Ullstrom – Cizikas12:18
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Boulton – Reasoner – Martin6:41
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey13:34
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares14:52
xG 0.49–0.50 (49%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey11:56
xG 0.55–0.35 (62%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic19:36
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Martinek – Streit17:34
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Crombeen – Thompson11:55
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos3:19
xG 0.08–0.03 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Conacher2:27
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Killorn – Stamkos11:23
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Gudas7:59
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hedman – Gudas2:39
xG 0.10–0.10 (51%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Salo – Carle2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).