Thu, Mar 14, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 3, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 112 | 111 | 332 |
| MIN | 113 | 319 | 18 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:04MINTorrey MitchellAssists: Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 19:34COLPA ParenteauPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 8:01MINDevin SetoguchiAssists: Matt Cullen, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–2
- P2 9:43MINJonas BrodinAssists: Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 10:06COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 11:12MINMikko KoivuGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 6:43COLMatt DucheneAssists: PA Parenteau, Erik Johnson · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 19:26MINMikko KoivuENAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.71 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:45MINZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:45COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:48COLErik Johnson: Interference2 min
- P1 16:18COLGreg Zanon: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:01MINJustin Falk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:20MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:30COLGreg Zanon: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:30MINMike Rupp: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:42COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:05COLChuck Kobasew: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:05MINCal Clutterbuck: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:05COLChuck Kobasew: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – O'Reilly – Landeskog3:43
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Stastny – Landeskog6:31
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Hejduk – Mitchell – Stastny6:40
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – Duchene9:39
xG 0.49–0.58 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – O'Brien11:17
xG 0.59–0.16 (79%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Hejda – Hunwick3:18
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Johnson2:08
xG 0.03–0.19 (12%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Bouchard – Setoguchi7:18
xG 1.65–0.46 (78%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle12:13
xG 0.85–0.29 (75%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Rupp – Konopka – Mitchell5:01
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Clutterbuck9:39
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Spurgeon17:28
xG 1.52–0.35 (81%)attempts 22–15goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Falk10:25
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Suter – Brodin15:49
xG 0.62–0.63 (50%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).